1 Overview

Next stages of SCRIPTs research will likely include a focus on the connection between crises\(^*\) and liberal orders (leads: Heike Klüver, Alexander Libman)

• Rich topic
  • Multiple crises, simultaneous and extended: migration, corona, climate, conflicts
  • Complex, theoretically and methodologically

\(^*\) Crisis defined, following Brinks and Ibert (2020), defined by uncertainty, urgency and threat

1.1 Today

1. Conceptual reflections on crisis and contestations

2. Some data points from:

   • Corona studies with Heike Klüver, Johannes Gieseke, Felix Hartman, Ferdinand Geissler
     
   • SCRIPTs survey analysis with Jonah Foong, Lukas Antoine, Heiko Giebler, Ramus Ollroge

3. Looking forward

• Rich agenda
• Theoretical work to do as very likely heterogeneous processes
• Will require conceptual disaggregation

2.1 Crises

Crises: Multiple, simultaneous.

Themselves contested, often along lines along which liberalism is also contested:

• Denial of climate change
• Corona skeptics
• Rejection that migration influx is a crisis
• (There was even recently a rejection that there is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza)

In part, perhaps, because all elements of the definition: uncertainty, urgency and threat depend on perceptions

2.2 Types of responses

Diverse effects:

2.3 Types of responses

These span many dimensions of liberalism.

Will there be a theory for them all?

It’s a big ask.

2.5 What logics connect crises to contestations?

Two transitory logics for observed contestations:

• Exceptionalism: Desperate times call for desperate measures: no change in values, only an exceptional change in strategies
• Unmasking: Crises expose otherwise invisible sources of control, otherwise invisible sources of disaffection

2.6 What logics connect crises \(\rightarrow\) contestations?

Two transitory logics for observed repression of rights:

2.7 What logics connect crises \(\rightarrow\) contestations

Two permanent logics:

• Passive: Exceptions become normalized or have long lasting effect: delegitimizing of international institutions or scientific authority
• Active: Crises open moments to re-evaluate structures and values; (a) hitherto underappreciated weaknesses exposed or (b) crises themselves be driven by failings of liberal ideas

2.8 What logics connect crises to contestations?

There may be general logics connecting crisis to regime change, but is there anything particular about the vulnerabilities of liberalism.

• Particular vulnerabilities, particular robustness
• Does the effect of crises on liberalism have to be studied in comparison with effects of crises on other systems?

5 Design

Key features of strategy:

1. Very tangible, contextualized, notion of support: whether institutions that reflect principles render a society more deireable

2. Disaggregation allows exploration of rival logics for rival components

3. Disaggregation protects us from definitional vulnerability:

4. Scope to use subjective definition rather than stipulated definition

5.11 Migration

• Bivariate relationship does not support the claim migration \(\rightarrow\) contestation
• Obvious selection concern here: need for intertemporal data and identification strategy

5.12 Climate

• No clear bivariate relationship; and negative with core controls
• Should we expect it given global nature of crisis?

5.13 Covid

• Bivariate relationship suggests does not support the claim: migration associated with more support (also with controls)
• Obvious selection concern here and need for intertemporal data and identification strategy